MLB Playoff Shifts

MLB Playoff Shifts – Week 16

William Brigstocke

AMERICAN LEAGUE

This week is all about Detroit. The Tigers were the only team in either league to add so much as four percent to its playoff probability, and it did much more than that. It opened up a gulf in what looks like the final remaining playoff race in the AL. They added 31.9 percentage points in the projected postseason standings. Conversely, the Indians fell 30.5 percentage points and are only 23.9 percent likely to win the Central division.

The Tigers went 4-2 in the past week while the Indians went 2-4 opening up a 2-game gap between them in the real standings. More important than the two game deficit is that the level of play from Cleveland continues to slide back from its torrid early season form. The Indians scored just eight runs during their current 4-game losing streak. Detroit is still winning games despite its pitcher’s not throwing particularly well (outside of Justin Verlander). The Tigers though recently acquired Wilson Betemit and had Carlos Guillen return to full health. They have the resources to continue to improve through the trade market that Cleveland does not.

The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers are all over 93 percent likely to nab the other three playoff spots in the American League. The trio was the favorite of baseball experts, and that looks like those predictions will come true. Tampa Bay is certainly one of the 10 best teams in the baseball, but being the third place team behind Boston and New York affords little room for error. The Rays went 3-4 this week and are down to just a 5.6 percent chance of passing either team in front of them even with the recent promotion of prospect Desmond Jennings.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The National League mirrored the American League in that very little was changed in the projected playoff standings. However, there was not a pair of teams like Cleveland and Detroit that shifted dramatically. The best race continues to be the NL Central which currently has St. Louis, Milwaukee, and the surprising Pirates in a three-way tie at the top. Cincinnati remains viable at three games behind, but in fourth place.

The Cardinals and Reds both gained about 3 percentage points this week, but the Cards are more likely to win the division at 41.9 percent. Milwaukee has the best frontline pitching and power hitting in its lineup, and is the favorite to win the division at 50.8 percent. The Brewers however are the only one of the four contenders that has a negative run differential for the season. The biggest area of improvement for them nearing the trade deadline should be their defense and the left side of the infield. Significant improvements can be made in both areas. The Pirates just don’t have enough of a track record to rate well in AccuScore simulations. The computer believes their starting pitching will continue to regress leaving Pittsburgh with just a 0.8 percent chance at the postseason.

Like the AL, the NL has three big favorites for the other spots in the playoffs. Philadelphia is the one “lock” while Atlanta and San Francisco are on their way to that status. Arizona is still a real challenger to the Giants in the West with a 14.9 percent chance at the division. There is still an outside chance the Diamondbacks or one of the Central teams catch the Braves in the Wild Card race, but not a great one. Atlanta currently holds a 4-game lead for the Wild Card, and holds the chips to make a significant trade this week at the deadline.

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