Braves at Phillies: MLB Baseball Free Picks at YouWager

Oliver Graham

As YouWager the East is the strongest division in the National League and the two best teams are will meet this weekend for a three-game set leading up to the All-Star break. The Philadelphia Phillies will look to expand on their NL-best divisional record (25-14) to expand their 2½-game lead over the Atlanta Braves before baseball’s unofficial halfway point.

The MLB free pick for this set are the Phillies, who have a rotation perfectly lined up with Halladay-Lee-Hamels to get the edge in this divisional series. The brutal combination of the Phillies’ strong play in the division and at Citizens Bank Park, where they are 32-14, will ultimately prove too much for the Braves to handle.

Beachy (3-1, 3.23 ERA) is enjoying a very good season, but this game will prove to be a challenge as he matched up against one of the few true aces in the game. Sadly for the 24 year-old, the one team that’s really figured him out this season is the Phillies, who in two starts this year have hit .382 against him. In his last start against Philadelphia in May, he only made it through two innings before exiting the game with an oblique injury that kept him out of action for more than a month. Much of the pressure for this game will fall on the Braves bullpen; Beachy has gone more than six innings only once in 11 starts this season, and that 7-IP outing occurred in April.

Halladay (11-3, 2.44 ERA) is still one one of the best pitchers in MLB year-in-and-year-out. His endurance is unprecedented in today’s game, throwing complete games in two consecutive outings. The right-handers home and road splits are nearly identical this season (2.44 ERA for both), so pitching away from Philadelphia is not a problem for him; he definitely gives the Phillies the pitching advantage in this start.

With arguably the nastiest stuff on the Braves’ staff, Hanson (10-4, 2.52 ERA) is off to a fantastic start this year. The right-handers luck isnt too bright with a draw matchup with Lee, but he gives his team hope because he has fared quite well against the Phillies throughout his career with a 2.45 ERA in six career starts. If he can strike guys out on Saturday the way he has all season (9.6 K/9), he should be able to compete in Citizens Bank Park where it’s a major advantage to keep the ball out of play.

After starting the season slowly, Lee (9-6, 2.92 ERA) is showing why his shelled out the big bucks for him this offseason. The lefty was unspectacular in April and May, but had a dominant month of June (5-0, 0.21 ERA), which he finished with three consecutive complete-game shutouts. The 32 year-old had a difficult time in his last start Sunday against the Blue Jays, allowing six earned runs on three homers, so the Braves’ recipe for success should be taking advantage of his propensity to give up a few too many long balls.

Even though he hasnt been outstanding, Lowe (5-6, 4.21 ERA) has been consistent and is currently in the midst of another mediocre season with Atanta. Despite his lack of good numbers, he has pitched quite well in both of his outings against Philadelphia in 2011, even if he is only 1-1; he has allowed only two runs and 10 base runners in 13 innings. He is also quite good in day games, posting a 3.02 ERA in seven of them this season. Still, oddsmakers have placed him as an underdog facing Hamels.

It’s a testament to Halladay and Lee, and not a knock on Hamels (10-4, 2.40 ERA) that he is the least intimidating starter Atlanta is facing this series. Still, 27 year-old is having a fantastic MLB season with 115 strikeouts in 124 innings, and is coming off a stellar month of June in which he allowed only six earned runs in 41.1 innings. The left-hander also started July on a high note with a win at Florida Tuesday (8 IP, 2 ER), marking his eighth straight start of allowing two runs or less (1.60 ERA during span). Hamels 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in three starts against the Braves in 2011, and is a favorable play with an extraordinary 7.8 K-to-BB ratio (31 K, 4 BB) in day games this year.

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