MLB Live Baseball Lines at YouWager: Phillies at Cubs

Oliver Graham

Tags: Cubs

In 2010 the Philadelphia Phillies began the post All-Star break portion of the second half with a four-game series against the Chicago Cubs. Philadelphia trailed the Atlanta Braves by 5½ games in the NL East. They lost three out of four in Wrigley, on their way to dropping six of their first seven out of the break. What a difference a year makes. This MLB season the Phillies entered the break with a 3½-game lead, a cushion that remains the same size after taking a weekend series from the Mets. At 59-35 they own the best record in all of baseball, and when they take the field at the friendly confines on Monday evening, it will be with the knowledge that they are a superb second-half team. Over the last six seasons under Charlie Manuel, the team is 270-172 (.611) after the break. That is the best among all NL teams during that span. With Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee taking the hill this week against the 20-games-below-.500 Cubs, Philly stands a pretty good chance of building on that mark.

According to oddsmakers, the MLB free pick here is for PHILADELPHIA to win the series, despite the steep 5-to-11 price tag. The Phillies have taken the past seven series they have played, and will make it eight straight series by outlasting the Cubs this week.

Roy Halladay’s the first start after the All-Star break has been a source of imperfection for the two-time Cy Young winner. In the last four games that the right-hander has started immediately coming out of the break, he has allowed at least five runs in three of those games. In the 2010 season, his initial second-half start against the Cubs saw Halladay allow six runs and seven hits in six innings as the Phillies lost to Chicago, 11-6. Not only has the 34 year-old (11-3, 2.45 ERA) been close to unbeatable all season, the Phillies have been even tougher, as they are 16-3 in games that he starts. In his last outing against the Cubs on June 10, Halladay pitched seven scoreless innings, striking out nine as the Phils defeated Chicago 7-5.

Starting for the Cubs will be Rodrigo Lopez (1-2, 4.02 ERA). In four starts versus Philadelphia, he is 1-1 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Lopez will need to pay special attention to Ryan Howard, who has an 18-game hitting streak at Wrigley Field. Howard is batting .417 with six homers and 15 RBI in his past nine games there, and is 6-for-11 with a home run lifetime against Lopez.

When Cliff Lee takes the mound for the second game of this series, it will be interesting to see if he can continue to impress his YouWager fans…with his bat! Lee is hitting .220 on the year with nine hits, six RBI, and in his last outing versus Atlanta, it was his solo HR (the first of his career) that accounted for the only scoring of the day for the Phillies. He’s not looking bad when he’s pitching either. Lee is 9-6 with a 2.82 ERA and a 4.7 K/BB ratio (137 K, 29 BB). Lee could be vulnerable away from home though, where he is 2-5 with a 4.73 ERA, a stark contrast to his gaudy home stats (7-1, 1.61 ERA). In his last road outing on July 3, Lee thought he was headed for his 10th win of the year, before being tattooed for three home runs in the eighth inning as he lost to the Blue Jays 7-4.

Making his second start for Philadelphia will be Matt Garza who is looking for a better outcome than he had on June 11 when he and his Cubs lost to Lee and the Phils 7-1. Garza went six innings, allowing five hits, two runs (one earned) while walking three. The 27 year-old has been stingy at home, sporting a 2.88 ERA in nine home starts this year.

While the right-handers not about to earn a permanent starring role in the Big Four, Vance Worley is making his online sports wagering fans happy as stunt double for the recuperating Roy Oswalt. After a May 29 hiccup against the Mets in which he allowed 12 hits and eight runs in three innings, Worley (5-1, 2.15 ERA) has spent the past six weeks slamming the door on opposing offenses. The 23 year-old has allowed just three earned runs in his past five starts, a stretch which has seen him go 3-0, and his team winning all five of those games.

In contrast, the Cubs will start with the winningest pitcher this season Ryan Dempster. The 34 year-old (7-6, 4.68 ERA) will be facing the Phillies for the first time this season. His home ERA of 3.42 is nearly half his 6.70 road ERA. If Worley continues to befuddle batters the way he has since the beginning of June, the right-hander will need to be a lot stingier if he is to keep his team in the game. Chicago is 13-7 (.650) when Dempster starts, and 25-51 (.329) when anybody else takes the hill this season.

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