Pac-12 basketball: Updated projections for the 2011-12 league race

Oliver Graham

Tags: 201112 League, League

It has been just over a week since the NBA Draft deadline. Frankly, I needed the time to thoroughly examine the destruction.

Including seniors, the league lost its top-seven scorers and eight of the 10 first-team all-conference selections this, from a league that wasnt very good in the first place.

Every player who seriously considered leaving school who, at minimum, tested the waters ended up staying in the draft.

Nobody pulled a Harrison Barnes, which seems odd when you consider that only Arizonas Derrick Williams (of the Pac-10 players) projects for the Lottery.

Most of them are headed for the second round, if they get picked at all.

As a result of Washington State, Washington, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Arizona and Colorado being hit hard by draft decisions, the conference will struggle in 2011-12 for the third consecutive season.

Before we get to an updated version of my April 14 projections, two general thoughts:

The regular-season champ will be either UCLA, Cal, Arizona or Washington its difficult to envision a scenario in which anyone else breaks into the top tier.

(I wouldnt be surprised if theres a two- or three-game gap in the standings between the top four and everyone else.)

Any of those four teams could win the league. Theyre all strong in certain areas, and theyre all flawed.

Here we go (with April projection)

1. Cal (2). Admittedly, this is an unconventional pick. Arizona and UCLA are the favorites in most early projections, and I had the Bears slotted for second place in April. What changed? Ive have time to contemplate the advantage Cal has over the other contenders in that its three best players Jorge Gutierrez, Allen Crabbe and Harper Kamp are returning. (They combined for nearly 50 ppg in league play; no other trio comes close.) There will be far less transition in Berkeley less redefining of roles than in Tucson, Seattle or Westwood. And its not like Mike Montgomerys teams ever underachieve.

2. UCLA (1). The Bruins will have the best frontcourt in the conference with Joshua Smith, Reeves Nelson, Anthony Stover and the Wear twins. And theyre good enough at the point (Lazeric Jones) to win a mediocre conference if they generate a reasonable amount of perimeter scoring.

3. Arizona (4). As noted last month, losing Derrick Williams is like losing two starters because of the way he made the players around him better. The depth is first rate and the freshman class is well regarded, although I remain skeptical that Josiah Turner will ever step on the court in an Arizona uniform. (This New York Daily News story only enhanced my suspicion.)

4. Washington (3). The Huskies are more than capable of winning the league if things break right. But between the questions up front and Abdul Gaddys knee, they have more issues than Cal, UCLA and Arizona. And lets face it, UW doesnt usually play its best basketball in January and February.

5. Oregon (6). I considered leaving this spot vacant but went with the Ducks because of the number of the returning players even without Malcolm Armstead and the dearth of good options. The leagues middle is extremely muddled.

6. Stanford (5). Had the Cardinal slotted a bit higher last month, before Jeremy Green entered the draft. In the long run, I think Stanford will be better without Green. But it will take time for Dwight Powell and Anthony Brown to grow into their roles as leading scorers.

7. Oregon State (7). With many of its top players returning, OSU could emerge as the best of the second tier. (Jared Cunningham might be the best player in the conference.)

8. USC (9). In decent shape in the backcourt with Jio Fontan and Maurice Jones, but there are questions everywhere else. Once Nikola Vucevic declared for the draft, USCs hopes for a top-six finish evaporated.

9. Colorado (10). Without Alec Burks and No. 2 scorer Cory Higgins, the Buffs will have a rough first year in their new conference. But once Tad Boyle reloads the roster, the Buffs will be a factor in the race every year.

10. Arizona State (11). Moved the Devils up one spot from the April projections, more because of attrition in Pullman than any sudden optimism about ASUs prospects.

11. Washington State (8). Faisal Aden is a good complementary player. When he projects as your No. 1 scorer, its time to worry.

12. Utah (12). Several years of roster building are needed before the Utes become a contender for the leagues first tier.

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