Pac-12 TV Network: Assessing the options, predicting the outcome

Oliver Graham

Guessing along with Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott is a risky business, fraught with the potential for the guesser (in this case: me) to look very silly.

Problem is, guessing along with Larry Scott is also fun.

So here we go

The original timeline for a detailed announcement on the Pac-12 Network structure was late June/early July.

But that has been pushed back-back-back, to the point that Id be shocked if the conference has any substantive news before, or during, the football media event in Los Angeles on Tuesday.

In fact, were probably looking at the middle of next month and it could be later.

The network is scheduled to launch in Aug. 12, and it will take about a year, according to Scott, to get everything in place. But his priority has to be getting the right structure, even if it takes longer than desired.

Scott and deputy commish Kevin Weiberg face a tough balancing act. The network is for the long haul, but the best broadcast structure for fans in 2022 is not necessarily the best broadcast structure for fans in 2012.

The conference has discussed partnering with Apple or Google in anticipation of the eventual widespread convergence of the internet and televisions surfing the web on your big screen.

But according to multiple league and industry sources, theres significant (and justifiable) concern that the vast majority of fans wont be ready for TV everywhere for a few years and would be alienated in the near term.

As a result, Scott and Weiberg are focusing on a more traditional arrangement in which the Pac-12 Network would partner with a cable or satellite operator (as the Big Ten partnered with Fox).

This does not rule out the internet TV model. Several sources have suggested that the conference would like to pursue both paths (traditional and internet) and is exploring ways to make that happen if not now then in the future.

But from what Ive gathered, football and mens basketball games will almost certainly be distributed through the cable/sat operator in a subscription-based model.

(Obviously, sub fees would allow for quicker profitability.)

So whos the operator of choice?

Thats the $100 million question.

One option is to flip a channel the way Discovery Health became the Oprah Winfrey Network, and the conference had partnership discussions with Discovery early in the process, according to a source.

But that path might require the conference to give away more equity than Scott would like in exchange for the programmers existing distribution.

Far more likely is a standard partnership with

Fox?

Doesnt seem like it.

Were not in any discussions with the conference about a Pac-12 Network, Fox Sports spokesman Chris Bellitti told me. Were happy with our new Pac-12 media rights agreement.

Comcast?

One source said thats highly unlikely.

(Comcast, which reportedly bid $230 million/year, was not happy about losing out to Fox and ESPN on the Pac-12 media rights deal.)

DirecTV?

Perhaps. Its based in Southern California (El Segundo), and thats an important consideration for the conference.

ESPN?

Cannot be ruled out until its officially out, but ESPN doesnt usually do dedicated networks. (Its partnership with Texas is the exception.)

Time Warner?

Ding-ding-ding.

My guess and its only a guess is that the Pac-12 partners with Time Warner, the primary cable distributor in L.A. County with, ahem, 2 million subscribers.

If you havent noticed, TWC has become an aggressive player in sports broadcasting lately. (Think: Lakers, 20 years, $3 billion.)

In fact, TWC just happens to be starting two regional sports channels, one in English and one in Spanish, and is looking at all available sports in the marketplace.

If paired with TWC, how would the Pac-12 Network gain distribution on Comcast, Charter, Fox, Root and other systems throughout its territory?

The conference believes it has more than enough leverage due to the football inventory held in reserve.

All Scott needs to do, for example, is schedule the Oregon-Washington game for the Pac-12 Network and, presto, it will be available on every cable system in the Pacific Northwest.

In summation:

Sure, Scott could announce a partnership with Google or Apple tomorrow.

But my guess is that sometime next month hell unveil a more traditional network structure, perhaps with Time Warner at the center.

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